The New Division of the West: A Modern Echo of Rome’s Split

The Roman Empire, once the pinnacle of Western civilization, ultimately fractured into two halves: the Western Roman Empire and the Eastern Roman Empire (Byzantium). This division signaled the beginning of the end for Rome’s dominance, as the empire struggled with both internal strife and external threats. Today, we are witnessing a similar fracture in the Western world, with the United States and Europe diverging in their geopolitical priorities.

The Munich Security Conference, once a symbol of Western unity, has now become a stage for revealing the growing rift between Washington and its European allies. The United States, increasingly focused on the Indo-Pacific, is demonstrating a waning interest in protecting Europe from external threats. The message from Washington is clear: Europe must take responsibility for its own security.

The New Barbarians

In Rome’s twilight years, it faced waves of barbarian invasions, from the Goths to the Vandals, who rejected the empire’s laws and order. Similarly, today’s global order faces new “barbarians”—states that do not recognize international law or the current world order. Russia, Iran, and North Korea (DPRK) are the key players in this axis of revisionism. These countries openly challenge Western norms, supporting proxy conflicts and destabilizing regions crucial to Western interests.

The parallels to Rome are striking. Just as the Western Roman Empire found itself besieged by groups that did not adhere to its legal or political framework, today’s liberal order is being challenged by autocratic regimes that reject the rules-based international system. The war in Ukraine is a manifestation of this struggle, as Russia seeks to reshape the European security landscape through force.

The U.S. Strategy: Playing Barbarians Against Each Other

Rome, in its final centuries, often sought to pit one barbarian group against another. It formed temporary alliances with certain tribes to fight more dangerous adversaries. The most famous example was Rome’s engagement with the Visigoths, whom it attempted to use against the Huns. However, this strategy ultimately failed, as these barbarian groups later turned against Rome itself.

The U.S. appears to be following a similar strategy. Washington seeks to drive a wedge between Russia and China, potentially using Moscow as a counterweight against Beijing. Just as Rome viewed Persia as its primary long-term adversary, so too does the U.S. see China as its most significant geopolitical rival. If Russia can be neutralized or even co-opted, the logic goes, it could help contain China’s expansion.

However, history warns us of the risks of such a strategy. Rome’s dealings with the barbarians backfired, leading to its eventual demise. The United States must tread carefully, lest it create a situation where the new barbarians unite against it.

Europe’s Fate: Left to Defend Itself?

With the U.S. shifting its focus away from Europe, the continent must come to terms with a new reality. Without American military protection, Europe faces a dangerous future where it may be left alone against external threats. Will European nations finally invest in their own defense, or will they find themselves vulnerable to the ambitions of the new barbarians?

One thing is certain: the Western world is no longer the united force it once was. Just as Rome split into two, today’s geopolitical shifts suggest that the unity of the West may be a relic of the past. The question remains—will Europe rise to the challenge, or will it suffer the fate of the Late Roman Empire?