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Tuesday, March 24, 2026

America’s Next Surplus People

 America has always been the ultimate human meat-grinder, a factory that chews up wave after wave of raw talent and spits out the next chapter of its endless hustle.



First monster wave, 1820s through the 1880s: over 10 million Germans, Irish, and Brits flooding in. Then the second tsunami, 1880–1920: another 18+ million Italians, Poles, Eastern European Jews, even Chinese. Every single time the same old song: “They won’t assimilate, they’re wrecking our culture, they’re stealing our jobs.” And what happened? Each wave became rocket fuel for industrialization. Back then the U.S. economy was a bottomless maw—factories, railroads, mines—hungry enough to swallow millions whole because it damn well could.

Post-1965 Hart-Celler Act brought the fourth wave: Latin America and Asia. Same tired refrain, but the data (Abramitzky, Boustan & crew) is crystal clear: today’s immigrants assimilate culturally and economically just as fast—or faster—than their great-grandparents. Their kids catch up and often lap the native-born in earnings and education. Immigration? Not a drag on the books; it’s been the turbo boost for GDP growth for two centuries straight.

Fast-forward to 2026. The Trump crew is popping champagne over “historic” numbers: 2.5+ million illegals either self-deported or kicked to the curb, with 675,000+ formally booted by ICE. Raids, detention centers, squeezing blue-state governors, even hiring extra “deportation judges.” The border’s “locked and loaded,” mass-deportation talk dialed back a notch after the Minneapolis dust-up, but the machine is running full throttle. Trump die-hards are high-fiving: “Finally—America for Americans!” The economy just can’t swallow any more, they say. And yeah, there’s truth in that: today’s America ain’t the same beast as 1900. Deindustrialization, automation, real wages flat-lining for low-skill workers. But the real culprit isn’t “hordes of Latinos.” The culprit is the structural gut-punch of late-stage capitalism itself.

Here’s the gut-punch line for everyone cheering in the bleachers right now: if you think only the migrants are the “extras,” you haven’t read the script to the bitter end. The next wave of surplus people is gonna be you—red-blooded, passport-carrying American citizens. The AI-and-robot age is already knocking on the door and it’s not asking politely. Goldman Sachs is calling it: 6–7 % of U.S. jobs (roughly 11 million) on the chopping block inside ten years. Forrester says 10.4 million by 2030. Oxford Economics projects up to 20 % gone in twenty. That white-collar dude grinding code, crunching data, running analytics or pushing pixels? He’s the new assembly-line worker. Generative AI is gobbling entry-level office gigs faster than robots ate blue-collar jobs in the ’80s and ’90s.

So what does the system do when it suddenly has millions of home-grown “surplus” citizens on its hands? Two time-tested plays, straight out of the history books:
1. War—the classic meat-grinder to burn off excess labor and restless young blood (just flip through any 20th-century chapter).
2. A pandemic or some other “act of God”—a clean demographic reset that also lets you write off the social-welfare tab.

The MAGA crowd high-fiving deportations today? They’re just fast-forwarding the day the state starts hunting for “extras” among its own. Because capitalism doesn’t give a damn about passports or red hats. It runs on one logic: profit. Today the migrant is the perfect scapegoat. Tomorrow? The American trucker, warehouse guy, mid-level coder, or cubicle drone. And no border wall, no ICE raid, no “America First” bumper sticker is gonna save your bacon when the shoe’s on the other foot.

History’s got a cold, clear lesson: America has always dealt with surplus people the hard way. The only question left is whose passports will be standing in that line next time the chickens come home to roost.

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