Saturday, July 15, 2023

On the cyclicity of warfare

Military history repeats itself, why today's war is similar to World War I, and what the next one will be like.

In the First World War, defense was stronger than offense. Tanks and airplanes were few in number and weak, posing no significant threat. The infantry, infantry assaults, and the meat grinder of Verdun were what mattered.

In the Second World War, the offense became stronger than defense. Armored wedges and assault aviation enabled the tactics of blitzkrieg and deep front breakthroughs.

In today's warfare, tanks are neutralized by the abundance of anti-tank missiles, and aircraft face formidable air defense systems. Once again, defense has become stronger than offense, and it's time for infantry and positional battles, similar to those of the First World War. How they stormed Bakhmut in 10 months and laid down 100 thousand soldiers. And the Ukrainian counter-offensive on Western equipment was brutally stopped by anti-tank missiles, and now the Ukrainians have to counter-attack with infantry.

However, in the next major war, thirty years from now, the offense will once again become stronger than defense, thanks to unmanned aerial vehicles and armored vehicles. Swarms of tens of thousands of unmanned aircraft and tanks will cut through the front lines like a hot knife through butter.

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