A Test Balloon with Shaheds: How Reality Turns into Absurdity

When Russia launched 19 kamikaze drones at Polish territory, the reactions were more revealing than the incident itself. Moscow immediately declared: “It wasn’t us.” Warsaw and NATO responded: “This is not an attack, but a provocation.” A formula meant to reassure instead became the first signal — a test balloon sent up into the skies of European security.

Testing the Red Line

The Shaheds that fell on Polish soil did not destroy infrastructure or cause mass casualties. But they destroyed something more important — trust in collective defense. Russia is probing: where is the threshold at which NATO responds not with words, but with action? The answer that came back was clear: there is no threshold.

This creates a new reality: next time it won’t be 19 drones, but 190. Then swarms of loitering munitions paralyzing cities. Next — “little green men” in the Suwałki corridor, who are likewise “not Russia.” And each time Moscow will say: “We’re not there” — while Washington nods: “No proof.”

Trump’s America and the Absurdity of Article 5

By NATO’s classical logic, an attack on one is an attack on all. But in the world of realpolitik, Article 5 becomes an empty declaration. It will be enough for Putin to tell Trump personally: “It’s not Russia” — and for the new occupant of the White House, that will be proof enough.

Picture it: Polish cities in smoke, Warsaw paralyzed by swarms of drones, while the White House repeats the mantra: “It’s a provocation, not an attack.” NATO becomes a club of diplomatic gestures rather than a military alliance.

What Was Really Agreed in Alaska

In this context, the most interesting part is not the official statements, but what is left unsaid. Behind the curtains of the negotiations in distant Alaska, whispers suggest a quiet deal:

• Putin is given Eastern and Central Europe as his “historic sphere of influence.”

• Trump receives symbolic “compensation” in the form of Greenland — the icy chunk he once dreamed of buying from Denmark.

A partition of Europe in exchange for the illusion of stability — that is the real formula of the 21st century.

Absurdity as the New Normal

The absurdity lies not in Russia attacking and denying it. The absurdity lies in the West being willing to believe the denials. In a world where words outweigh facts, Putin only needs to say “It wasn’t us” to unravel any alliance.

And while explosions echo on the eastern border of the EU, Washington and Brussels hum another tune: “This is not war, only provocation.” The test balloon has already risen into the sky. Next comes the barrage.