The French Far Right and the Mirage of an Economic Miracle

 The rise of Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) and her protégé Jordan Bardella reflects a profound political shift in France. The discontent with Emmanuel Macron’s government, coupled with the appeal of populist slogans, has created a climate where early elections could plausibly hand power to the far right. Yet, even if RN wins, the grand promises of an economic miracle are bound to shatter against the hard wall of reality.

Populist Promises

The RN agenda contains proposals that sound simple and reassuring:

• Lower taxes on energy, fuel, and basic goods.

• Prioritize French citizens over immigrants in jobs, housing, and welfare.

• Restore national industries by reducing imports and enforcing protectionism.

• Rebalance France’s relationship with the European Union, shifting toward a “Europe of nations” rather than an integrated bloc.

These promises resonate with struggling households, farmers, and workers who feel abandoned by Paris and Brussels. They create the illusion of quick relief and national revival. But illusions are not policy.

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Structural Constraints

France’s economy faces structural challenges that cannot be solved by slogans:

• Debt Burden: With public debt exceeding 110% of GDP, cutting taxes while increasing spending will only deepen deficits.

• Eurozone Rules: As long as France remains in the euro, Brussels and the financial markets will constrain reckless fiscal experiments.

• Globalization: Protectionism may save a handful of factories, but it will raise prices for ordinary consumers and risk trade retaliation.

• Investment Climate: Conflict with the EU and uncertainty about economic direction will scare off both domestic and foreign investors.

RN’s economic project is therefore a contradiction: it promises prosperity through isolation, generosity through austerity, and sovereignty without the resources to sustain it.

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What Might Work—Briefly

To be fair, some measures could bring short-term relief. Subsidized energy or tax cuts might put more money in people’s pockets for a season. A symbolic stand against globalization might save jobs in symbolic sectors. Yet such gestures would be more cosmetic than transformative. They buy time and votes, not prosperity.

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Lessons from Abroad

Europe already provides case studies. Giorgia Meloni in Italy entered office with similar nationalist-economic rhetoric. After two years, her reforms remain modest, growth is stagnant, and Brussels still holds the purse strings. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán’s “economic sovereignty” led to chronic inflation and deeper dependency on Russia and China. Poland’s Law and Justice party (PiS) built popularity on family benefits, but its real growth was fueled not by policy genius but by EU funds and foreign investment.

The French far right is unlikely to defy this pattern.

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RN will almost certainly come to power sooner or later, because its message resonates with a frustrated electorate. But governing is different from campaigning. The tools available to Le Pen and Bardella are blunt and limited, hemmed in by debt, the euro, and the realities of global economics. They can promise an economic miracle, but at best they will deliver a short-lived illusion.

France will wake up to find that slogans cannot pay the bills, and the dream of prosperity through nationalism will prove to be nothing more than a mirage.